Assessments

Chad

Panama

China

France

Serbia

Hungary

Russia

Panamanian presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino on May 1, 2024, in Panama City. Panamanians will vote May 5 to select their next president and all 71 members of the National Assembly.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Panama Holds General Elections, Xi Visits Europe

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

Military & Security

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Columns

On Geopolitics

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

United States

Environment, Science & Technology

Perhaps the one area where the President and former President broadly agree is the national security implications of technology policy: Biden has maintained and expanded many of Trump's first-term restrictions on China's access to sophisticated American technology, and both share a revitalized interest in "reshoring" high-tech manufacturing. While a second Biden administration would put a greater emphasis on working in concert with America's allies on technology policy and would be more open to "friendshoring" key tech production, a second Trump term would be more likely to "go it alone" and would be far more transactional with friend and foe alike.

Trump vs. Biden: The Implications for U.S. Tech Regulation

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 2, 2024

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

What types of threat actors will be most active leading up to the election?

Essential Geopolitics: Election-Related Cyber Threats in the U.S.

Europe

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

Energy

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

Iran

Israel

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Japan

What is the future of Japan and the U.S.'s military relationship?

Essential Geopolitics: What Continued U.S.-Japan Cooperation Means for China

Panama presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino of the conservative Realizing Goals party gestures during a campaign rally in Panama City on April 28, 2024. 

Economics

The Central American country's next president will take office at a time of deepening economic challenges and political tensions, creating business uncertainty and unrest risks in the years ahead.


Previewing Panama's Presidential Election

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

South Africa

South Africa's May general election will be the country's most competitive vote in 30 years, testing the dominance of the ruling African National Congress.

2024 Elections: South Africa

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 29 at a Joint Ministerial Meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-U.S. Strategic Partnership in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Assessing Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy During the Israel-Hamas War and Beyond

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

Bolivia

Peru

Palestinian Territories

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Ballots are counted during local elections in Thornaby, England, on May 3, 2024. 

The outcome of the votes in England and Wales confirms the ruling Conservative Party will likely perform poorly in the general election, but also that the opposition Labour Party will face competition from smaller parties.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen between the Chinese and French national flags in Beijing on Jan. 9, 2018. 

During the rare visit, the Chinese president will seek to ease EU trade tensions and secure Beijing's economic presence and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

What To Expect During Xi's Trip to Europe

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban began destroying poppy fields in the northeastern province of Badakhshan on May 3, triggering local resistance and around two days of violent protests in which Afghan Taliban fighters fired their weapons to disperse protesters, killing two people, Voice of America reported on May 5.

Afghanistan: Enforcement of Poppy Ban Triggers Rare Violent Protests in Northeast

Canada

Canadian police on May 3 arrested and charged three Indian nationals for the June 2023 killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia and said they were investigating whether the men had ties to the Indian government, AP reported on May 4. 

Canada, India: Canada Arrests, Charges Three Indian Nationals for 2023 Murder of Sikh Separatist

Israel rejected Hamas’ cease-fire proposal and authorized the start of the long-planned operation to invade Gaza's southern city of Rafah, with Israeli tanks reportedly moving into the city's outskirts, The Times of Israel reported on May 6.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

Wait times at the Ysleta-Zaragoza border crossing between Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and El Paso, Texas, dropped after the Texas Department of Public Safety stopped conducting supplementary safety inspections on cargo vehicles, Border Report reported on May 3.

Mexico, U.S.: Texas Suspends Increased Inspections at El Paso Commercial Crossing

Togo

Togo's national electoral commission announced on May 4 that the ruling Union for the Republic party secured a majority in the National Assembly, winning 108 out of 113 seats, following the April 29 elections, Radio France Internationale reported the following day. 

Togo: Ruling Party Wins Majority in Parliamentary Elections

Guatemala

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo announced on May 5 that he will propose a legal reform to Congress on May 6 that would allow Attorney General Consuelo Porras to be dismissed, Infobae reported on May 6.

Guatemala: President Proposes Reform To Allow Dismissal of Attorney General

Panamanian presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino of the conservative Realizing Goals party won Panama's May 5 election with nearly 35% of the vote and a 9% lead on the next closest candidate, anti-corruption candidate Ricardo Lombana, according to unofficial results issued by Panamanian authorities, AP reported on May 6.

Panama: Ally of Convicted Former President Wins Election

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union will deploy all necessary tools to protect EU companies from China's manufacturing overcapacity and lack of reciprocity in market access, Bloomberg reported on May 6.

EU, China: Brussels Raises Pressure on Beijing After Meeting With Xi

Russia's Defense Ministry announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had authorized exercises in order to increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat missions, AP reported May 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia To Conduct Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises in Response to Western Statements

Science & Technology

Pakistan

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. rejected a senator's proposal to outfit Philippine coast guard vessels with water cannons to repel Chinese incursions into the so-called West Philippine Sea, the section of the South China Sea claimed by Manila, Rappler reported on May 6.

Philippines: President Rejects Proposal To Use Water Cannons Against China

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan: Enforcement of Poppy Ban Triggers Rare Violent Protests in Northeast

Canada, India: Canada Arrests, Charges Three Indian Nationals for 2023 Murder of Sikh Separatist

Israel, Gaza: Israel Rejects Cease-Fire Proposal, Begins Rafah Offensive

Mexico, U.S.: Texas Suspends Increased Inspections at El Paso Commercial Crossing

Togo: Ruling Party Wins Majority in Parliamentary Elections

Guatemala: President Proposes Reform To Allow Dismissal of Attorney General

Panama: Ally of Convicted Former President Wins Election

EU, China: Brussels Raises Pressure on Beijing After Meeting With Xi

Russia, Ukraine: Russia To Conduct Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises in Response to Western Statements

Philippines: President Rejects Proposal To Use Water Cannons Against China

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